一、 报告题目

Gold priced in oil, economic fundamentals and return predictability

Abstract: Gold to oil prices ratio (GO) is a procyclical leading economic indicator, which reveals and enhances the information of gold prices related to economic fundamentals rather than financial risk or economic distress. We empirically show that GO positively predicts future excess stock market returns both in-sample and out-of-sample. GO performs better during economic recessions and bear market periods, and outperforms other gold price ratios. GO predicts stock returns by affecting future economic conditions and discount rates. GO provides us with a new perspective to explain gold price behaviors during economic recessions.

二、 报告人

方彤，2138cn太阳集团古天乐副教授

三、 报告时间

7月17日14:00-15:00

四、 报告地点

腾讯会议 ID：617 902 724