一、讲座主题：Rolled-over Credit Cycles

Abstract:Canonical macroeconomic and financial models require credit to be equal to its fundamental component, i.e., the net present value of the net flows to creditors. According to this conventional view, credit booms are expected to precede increased flows to creditors. However, data suggests the opposite. To rationalize the novel empirical findings, we develop a model with financial frictions and heterogeneous firms, allowing firms to roll over a fraction of credits indefinitely. We show that an increase in indefinite rollover credit raises the aggregate credit and output while depressing the credit's fundamental component through firms' precautionary savings.

二、主讲人：汤皓州，墨西哥央行主管级研究员

研究方向：宏观经济学，包括宏观金融，资产市场，资产泡沫等。主要研究经济中的泡沫如何影响企业决策，以及泡沫怎样透过企业决策影响经济周期的传播。

三、讲座时间：2022年3月3日10:00-11:30

四、讲座地点：中心校区知新楼B321